Iran Redux

This a.m., Diane Rehm had a show about Israel going to war against Iran.  One of the Israelis said that there was no cause for concern that it might become a much larger conflict.  Rather it would remain regional.  Because the majority of Americans and Israelis do not want a confrontation with Iran, whether Israel would go it alone against Iran was also considered.

A few concerns I had about those issues were not discussed.  Iran has a few more people, I believe, than Iraq and an attack would only serve to unite them.  It is also my belief that Iran is predominantly Shiite.  If we have learned anything in Afghanistan, we should have learned that political boundaries are arbitrary—often splitting up large groups of people defined more by their religious affiliation than anything else.

Religious unity goes to the concept of an Iranian confrontation remaining in Iran.  The Middle-East is governed largely by Sunnis.  That does not mean, however, that the Middle East is largely composed of Sunnis.  To the contrary, the Sunni leadership in a lot of the Middle-East is actually a minority, attempting to govern a lot of angry, seething if you will, Shiites.  It is my feeling that if Israel attacked Iran, it would be just the excuse the Shiites would need to revolt and come to the aid of their brethren in Iran.

The other thing I am concerned about is that the only thing anyone discussed was stopping Iran’s attempt to get the bomb, because one man in Iran said he would demolish Israel.  Well, one man does not a war make.  Romney is blowing a lot of smoke about helping Israel, but there are a LOT of people here who are opposed.  The thing that has my interest is besides stopping the bomb, what is the rest of the scenario?

Certainly, the second thing that would be destroyed would be most the oil fields.  So, unless all the countries of the world are prepared to exist only on their own oil, I suggest we give this a good think.  Hormuz would be closed.  The Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields would be severely disabled and Iran would take over Iraq and her oil fields.

I know that we have a lot of toys and that we have sold a lot of toys to the Saudis and the Egyptians, but has anyone given any thought as to whose side the new Egypt would come down on?  After all the toys, what country has the stomach to put enough boots on the ground to end this?  People have been fighting in Afghanistan for the last 20+ years and no one has even come close to an end.   Iran is much bigger and they would certainly be joined by a lot of “neighbors.”

Seriously people, what does anyone have to gain by pushing this conflict?  We need to put as much, if not MORE energy into resolving the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.  What about sanctions to get THEM to the table.  There are MANY people in the Middle-East who look at America with the same anger as they view Israel.  Do not think, for one minute, that if   Israel attacks Iran, that the war will stay over there.  For a “No Brainer,” there are quite a lot of people without any brains, who are talking this up.