Only God knows what lies beyond this event horizon. As a good friend of mine recently said, “The world as we know it is over,” meaning that the US dominance that has shaped most of our world view has passed and we must no reshape our understanding of how global economic and political forces function.

In terms of Afghanistan, Foreign Affairs recently posted a short piece advocating sending more troops, precisely because of the illegitimacy of Karzai’s regime. American efforts in the mideast are last-ditch efforts to extend US hegemony. A failure in Iraq and/or Afghanistan makes Reimann’s predications certain.

Should the US prevail in the mideast, regardless of how unlikely victory is, what would be the impact on Reimann’s perspective?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65681/mark-moyar/the-l-word-in-afghanistan

As long as the US capitalist class continues in its support of Israel, the hatred will continue in the Mid East. That hatred has to go somewhere. Presently, in the absence of a world working class movement, reactionary, at times even fascist, Islamic nationalist forces are able to make gains. If the US capitalist class were to simply withdraw unilaterally from Afghanistan and Iraq, this would be seen as a major defeat (and so it would be). The result would be even greater support for al Qaeda and similar forces.

Incidentally, Zach is forgetting that it is not only the US in Afghanistan – it is NATO officially, meaning that European capitalism supports this invasion/occupation. And if the Chinese and Russian (as well as Iranian) capitalist classes see their main rival as being weaker, why on earth would that NOT affect their decisions? Why would they not become more assertive? In fact that is already happening.

Take just one example: There are tensions developing between Chinese and Indian capitalism. At the same time the Chinese and Pakistani regimes are making some links. This tendency would accelerate.

A defeat is a defeat is a defeat, and that’s what withdrawel would be. By the same token, of course, such a defeat would also strengthen the US working class.